Mission Ready AcademyForecast Command (Public Safety Edition)
- Edition
- Public Safety and Emergency Management
- Skills
- 16
- Length
- 12 h
- Plan tier
- All-Access
About this course
Forecast Command for chiefs, shift commanders, and emergency managers: state expectations so they can be scored, and correct course while it is still cheap.
Forecast Command is a written standard for how expectations get stated, checked, and corrected. Sixteen skills in four modules run on the SCORE Loop (State, Condition, Observe, Reconcile, Extract) and build six capabilities: forecast discipline, calibration, assumption control, evidence handling, correction velocity, and institutional memory. It works on operational, financial, and staffing calls. It is not software, it is not a statistics course, and it does not promise your forecasts will be right. It helps you find out you are wrong earlier and cheaper.
Bristlecone Regional EMS Authority, 480 employees across two counties, signs a three-year interlocal agreement for 911 ambulance response that requires a second deployment station covering 12,000 unit-hours a month by the end of the third quarter.
What you will be able to do
- Write a forecast that can be scored by naming the call in Hard Call Format, conditioning it on a reference set and a base rate, publishing a confidence band, and setting the resolution date and owner that close the SCORE loop.
- Hold confidence to the evidence by logging calls in an accuracy ledger, computing hit rate by confidence band, naming the drift pattern running on a live call, clearing physical and emotional load before deciding, and collecting independent estimates before any discussion.
- Test the parts of a plan that can sink it by stripping out the assumptions and sorting them by confidence and consequence, designing the cheapest check that could disprove the plan, writing the failure in advance to surface its causes, and setting pre-authorized trip wires on the risks that remain.
- Close the loop on resolved calls by measuring the gap and classifying the miss, extracting exactly one durable rule with a home and an enforcer, running the rolling brief that publishes it, and standing up a unit accuracy board that reports correction lag as the headline number.
Who it is for
Chiefs, battalion and shift commanders, and emergency management directors. No quantitative background is needed.
This edition's scenarios, examples, and vocabulary are set in a public safety agency. The objectives and standards are the same in every edition.